ISSN : 2663-2187

Export dynamics of oilseed in India: A Markov Chain Analysis

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Sachin Kumar Verma, R. R. Kushwaha, Shiv Kumar, Rakesh Pal Singh, Randhir Yadav, Riyaz Ahmad
ยป doi: 10.48047/AFJBS.6.12.2024.3935-3941

Abstract

This study analyses the export trends of India's oilseeds to major importing countries from 2011 to 2022 using first-order Markov Chain Analysis. The data was entirely secondary collected information from Ministry of Commerce and Industry. The study aims to understand the dynamics and directions of oilseed exports by examining transitional probability matrices. The analysis reveals strategic diversification in export patterns, with significant export relationships between the USA and Australia, the UK distributing exports across the USA, Canada, and Brazil, and Spain exporting broadly to the UK, Brazil, and other destinations. Brazil focuses on Italy and the USA, while Italy targets Brazil and Spain. Australia's main partners are Brazil and the UK, and Canada concentrates on Spain and Brazil. Other countries primarily export to Canada and Italy. The value analysis underscores the importance of these trade relationships, highlighting the critical roles of Spain and Brazil. The findings suggest that India's diversified export strategy mitigates market dependency risks and enhances trade stability, offering valuable insights for future export trends and strategic planning in the global oilseed market.

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