ISSN : 2663-2187

Stability analysis of Indian Sugar Export – A Markov Chain Approach

Main Article Content

Aditya Bhooshan Srivastava, K.K. Singh, Supriya, Sachin Srivastava, Ashish Srivastava, MahimaPriyanka Neerugatti and Sachin Kumar Verma
» doi: 10.48047/AFJBS.6.12.2024.3807-3814

Abstract

The paper aim to quantify the changing structure of sugar exports from 2011-12 to 2022-23, based on entirely secondary data collected information from Ministry of Commerce and Industry. The Markov chain analysis was made to use linear programming method to evaluate the transition probabilities for the sugar markets. The results revealed that UAE, Somalia, Iraq, Bangladesh, and Saudi Arabia were the stable markets for Indian sugar exports, while Sudan, Sri Lanka, and Djibouti were identified as unstable markets.So, policies may be designed by planners for export to these countries.India has successfully maintained one of its original markets. However, it is not advisable to rely heavily on a single market in order to mitigate trade risks in the long term.It is important to explore new markets, such as Sudan, and prioritize established buyers like UAE and Somalia in order to preserve our current export position and market share in the future.

Article Details